PROBABILISTIC CORROSION INITIATION MODEL FOR COASTAL CONCRETE STRUCTURES (Journal Paper Submitted)

Overview:  The research proposes a computational framework to develop evidence-based probabilistic corrosion initiation models for the reinforcing steels in the RC structures, which predicts the corrosion initiation time and quantify the inherent variances considering various acting parameters. The framework includes: probabilistic modeling with Bayesian updating based on experimental data with various conditions such as material properties and environmental conditions; parameter estimation; Bayesian model/parameter selection ; corrosion reliability analyses to predict the probabilities of the corrosion initiation at given time t, structural configurations, and environmental conditions; and sensitivity analyses to measure the influences of each parameter. Total of 284 sets of experimental data exposed to the coastal atmospheric environments are used for the modeling. The research contributes to the decision making to improve the corrosion reliability, corrosion control, and further the structural reliability of corroding structures.

  • Student involved: Changkyu Kim, Ph.D. student, Material Science, Texas A&M University

Corrosion

  Example Figure1. Estimated probability of corrosion initiation: (a) w/c=0.46, (b) w/c=0.5, (c) w/c=0.53, (d) w/c=0.7, and (e) w/c=0.76

Corrosion2

Example Figure 2. Model prediction vs observation and prediction error; Model A: (a-b), Model B: (c-d), and Model C: (e-f).

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